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Recent polling data from reputable sources suggests that former President Donald Trump is on track to defeat Vice President Kamala Harris in a potential landslide in the 2024 presidential election.
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According to polls from Insider Advantage and the Trafalgar Group, Trump is leading in several key battleground states, positioning him well for a strong showing in November. The most recent polling indicates that Trump has a notable edge, with a projected 296 electoral votes to Harris’s 226. Swing states like Pennsylvania (+2.2), Michigan (+2.2), and Wisconsin (+1.1)historically close and often leaning Democratic — seem to be tilting in Trump’s favor.
Trump is ahead by one point in Arizona and North Carolina, though races in Nevada and Georgia remain extremely tight. Trafalgar’s data indicates that Georgia, a fiercely contested state, is currently a dead heat between the candidates.
Republican prospects for reclaiming the Senate are also improving, with a 73% chance of taking control of the upper chamber, which would significantly alter Washington’s political landscape.
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In addition to polling, political prediction markets are showing increased confidence in Trump’s chances. Polymarket, one of the largest prediction markets, gives Trump a 49% probability of winning the presidency — a significant jump from earlier months.
Meanwhile, Harris’s standing appears to be slipping, particularly in traditionally Democratic-leaning states like Michigan and Wisconsin. Policy concerns continue to plague her campaign. In a recent interview with MSNBC’s Stephanie Ruhle, Harris was questioned about how she would fund expanded child tax credits and housing assistance. Her response, which avoided specifics, drew criticism from political analysts for relying on pre-planned talking points without addressing the financial details.
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During the Trump administration, significant tax reforms were passed, lowering corporate taxes from 35% to 21%, alongside tax cuts benefiting the majority of American workers. A 2021 analysis found that middle- and working-class Americans were among the primary beneficiaries of these reductions.
Harris has also faced criticism for vague responses during past interviews, including one with CNN’s Dana Bash. In that interview, Harris was joined by her running mate, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, and faced backlash for her evolving policy positions since accepting the Democratic nomination.