Newsom Cites Surge in California Migrants - IS THAT TRUE?

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Disclaimer: The article may include the author's opinions.

California Governor Gavin Newsom’s office recently touted a “surge” in people moving to the state, yet official data paints a starkly different picture, revealing that California leads the nation in net out-migration. While Newsom’s office highlighted a 2024 Newsweek article emphasizing California’s popularity as a destination, a closer look at the data suggests the state is facing significant population losses.

The Newsweek article, which referenced the National Association of Realtors (NAR) finding California among the top states for inbound migration in 2024, has since been updated. The original report, which covered data from 2022, was revised to clarify that California did not see high net migration numbers in 2024. The piece’s title was changed from “California Sees Surge in People Moving to the State” to “Californians Who Left for Remote Work Have Shown ‘Signs of Returning,'” reflecting a shift in focus toward the potential return of remote workers due to increasing return-to-office mandates.

Other reports show alarming patterns in spite of Newsom’s office’s assertions. According to a recent NAR report, with 18,485 job losses in the third quarter of 2023, California saw the largest net out-migration of jobs. Compared to Illinois, the second-largest state for job losses, this was more than 29% greater. California is underperforming, as seen by the state’s largest economy and population when compared to Texas, which has an economy two-thirds the size and a population three-quarters the size.

California’s population growth has faced criticism. While Governor Newsom’s office reported an increase of 67,000 people in the 2022–2023 fiscal year, data from the U.S. Census paints a contrasting picture. The Orange County Register revealed that California experienced a net loss of 268,052 residents in 2023, a significant decline compared to 2022. This suggests that the state’s population may not have grown as much as Newsom’s office claims.

Republican leaders in California have attributed the population decline to the state’s policies under Newsom’s administration. Assembly Minority Leader James Gallagher, R-Yuba City, criticized Newsom for “cherry-picking” data to paint a misleading picture of California’s recovery. He blamed the governor’s policies on issues like crime, homelessness, and inflation, claiming they were driving people away.

While the state has seen a slight improvement in its population loss, with projections estimating a net loss of 210,000 residents this year, the overall trend remains concerning. According to IRS migration data, those moving into California tend to be poorer than those leaving, which further compounds the state’s challenges. This population shift highlights the difficulty the state faces in retaining its more affluent residents while grappling with economic and social issues that continue to drive people out.

As the debate over California’s population dynamics continues, Newsom’s office faces growing criticism from lawmakers and residents who argue that the state’s current trajectory under his leadership is unsustainable. With a large number of Californians seeking opportunities elsewhere, the long-term impact on the state’s economy and society remains uncertain.