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The Wall Street Journal recently released a poll indicating challenging news for Democrats hoping to retain the White House. The poll, conducted nationally and across crucial swing states, including the so-called “blue wall,” showed that former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are running neck and neck. However, in some key battlegrounds, the numbers suggest significant concerns for Democrats.
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In what is considered the Democratic stronghold of the Sun Belt, Nevada, the poll revealed that support for Democrats is waning, with the former president leading 47 percent to 42 percent. The other six swing states are nearly tied, with Harris holding a slim edge of one to two points in Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Georgia, while Trump leads by one point in Pennsylvania and North Carolina.
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The poll, as reported by Politico, indicated a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points in each state. The survey, conducted between September 28 and October 8, polled 600 registered voters in each of the swing states and included third-party candidates where they will be on the ballot. Across all surveyed swing-state voters, Trump was reported to lead Harris 46 percent to 45 percent.
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Both major party candidates maintained solid support within their respective parties, with 93 percent of Democrats and Republicans saying they would vote for their party’s nominee. Independent voters, however, were split, with Harris receiving 40 percent of their support and Trump 39 percent, reflecting the closeness of the race and the deep partisan divide.
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The poll also demonstrated that the former president had gained ground in two of the three key Blue states that Harris needs for the upcoming election, and according to the latest Quinnipiac University poll, Trump leads in Michigan with 50 percent to Harris’s 47 percent and in Wisconsin with 48 percent to 46 percent. In Pennsylvania, Harris still leads but by a narrower margin of 49 to 46 percent. Last month, Harris had held a stronger lead in Michigan, at 50 to 45 percent, and was ahead in Pennsylvania with 51 to 45 percent.
The Real Clear Polling average, based on surveys conducted as recently as last month, also reflected Trump’s narrow lead in Pennsylvania and Michigan, while Harris maintained a small advantage in Wisconsin. In this poll, Harris received more favorable ratings on issues like abortion policy, while Trump performed better on immigration, the economy, and the Middle East conflict.
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The polling, which was conducted by Quinnipiac University from October 3 to 7, had a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percentage points for Pennsylvania’s 1,412 voters, +/- 3.1 percentage points for Michigan’s 1,007 voters, and +/- 3.0 percentage points for Wisconsin’s 1,073 voters.
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In comparison to the 2016 election, Trump appears to be performing better against Harris than he did against Hillary Clinton. Clinton had a 3.4 percent lead in Michigan, according to the Real Clear Politics average, but Trump won the state by a slim margin of 0.3 percent. In Wisconsin, Clinton was leading by 6.5 percent in the polls, but Trump ultimately secured the state by 0.7 percent. In Pennsylvania, despite Clinton’s 1.9 percent lead, Trump managed to win by 0.7 percent.
Outside of the Blue Wall, Real Clear Polling averages indicated that Trump held leads in Georgia, North Carolina, and Arizona, all of which were close races. Harris, however, maintained a lead in Nevada, which remains one of the few Democratic strongholds in the current polling data.