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Adam Schiff is dominating the Republican field in the current Democratic fight for the open U.S. Senate seat in California. The adversary is Steve Garvey. 400 likely voters participated in a recent ActiVote survey, which was performed between October 1, 2024, and October 18, 2024. According to the data, Schiff has a 26.8% lead with a 4.9% margin of error.
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Schiff’s dominance comes from his strong support among left-leaning voters, securing 97% of their backing, while Garvey holds 89% of his core right-leaning constituency. Crucially, California’s voter base leans more to the left, giving Schiff a significant advantage. Compared to earlier polls, Schiff’s lead has slightly narrowed down from 32.6% in August to 26.8% in October.
However, political analysts like Mark DiCamillo from UC Berkeley attribute Schiff’s edge to California’s overwhelming Democratic and liberal voter base, making it an uphill battle for any Republican in the state.
Abortion rights have also emerged as a critical issue in the race, with 55% of voters saying it influences their choice. Schiff, 64, has been a vocal supporter of abortion rights, advocating for federal protection of the procedure. Garvey, while personally against abortion, has stated that he would respect the voice of Californians on the matter.
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In an interview with the New York Post, Garvey reflected on his unexpected success in the March jungle primary and shared his optimistic outlook for the Senate. As a political outsider, Garvey emphasized his commitment to working across the aisle, focusing on collaboration and unity in Washington. He also expressed his desire to address California’s homeless crisis, pledging to demand an audit of the billions spent on homelessness and vowing to tackle what he called one of the state’s great humanitarian disasters.
Garvey has also framed his campaign as a departure from traditional politics, rejecting political endorsements in favor of support from law enforcement and first responders. His campaign focuses on key issues such as affordability, public safety, border security, and restoring California’s leadership. Despite the daunting odds in a predominantly Democratic state, Garvey remains optimistic, claiming he has a good plan to win, though he has not yet shared specific details.
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Even though Schiff has a sizable advantage, some California voters still find Garvey appealing because of his outsider status and dedication to addressing issues like public safety and homelessness. It remains to be seen if it will sufficiently reduce the difference.