Trump and DeSantis are statistically tied with Biden in Arizona, according to a poll
A presidential poll conducted in Arizona in 2024 has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percent, making that year’s election a toss-up. DeSantis’s numbers in Florida’s crucial swing state aren’t much better: he’s ahead of His Fraudulency Joe Biden by one point, while former President Trump is only down two.
This poll of 1,000 Ohio residents by Ohio Insights was conducted between January 31 and February 9, and it shows that if the election were held today, DeSantis would win with 36% of the vote to Vice President Joe Biden’s 35%. This means that Desantis gets a plus one.
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Biden defeats Trump by a score of 39 to 37 percent. And so, Trump loses by a score of -2. According to the survey, Trump has a chance of winning the votes of 7% of Democrats and 28% of independents. At the same time, Joe Biden would get the support of 35% of uncommitted voters and 10% of Republicans.
DeSantis does worse than Trump with Republicans (65% to 72%) but better with independents (34% to 28%). In contrast, Biden’s performance against DeSantis is worse with both Republicans (7 percent vs. 10 percent against Trump) and independents (29 percent compared to 35 percent against Trump).
The good news for DeSantis is that he has the most room to grow his support in this poll, out of the three candidates. Biden and Trump’s backers are who and what they are known to be. But when it comes to a choice between Biden and Trump, 25% are still on the fence. In contrast, 38% of voters are on the fence about choosing between Biden and DeSantis.
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In the 2024 presidential election, Arizona will play a pivotal role as a swing state. Despite the fact that the 2020 election result in that state was hotly contested, Biden ultimately won.
DeSantis’s poll numbers won’t mean much until he actually runs for office in 2024. When you finally decide to enter the fray, everything shifts. And if DeSantis does, he’ll be in for a rough primary against Trump, who has already declared his candidacy.
Obviously, DeSantis could lose the primary, or he could emerge so damaged by Trump that he would have no chance in a general election, or he could go all the way. There is simply no way to know until it actually occurs, rendering these polls speculative at best.
Despite my admiration for Trump, I think DeSantis would be foolish not to seek the presidency in 2024. A close primary would be good for both men even if one of them doesn’t end up winning. DeSantis’s possible hesitation is due solely to Nikki Haley’s bid for the GOP nomination. With Trump’s support being so solid, she can do nothing but chip away at potential DeSantis voters.